The Hat

I got this picture yesterday from the son of my fighter pilot mentor, Bill Loyd. He took his son to the National Museum of the US Air Force and while enjoying the newly established 100 Mission Over North Vietnam display he stumbled upon this:



We wore the jungle hat in F-105 squadrons operating out of Thailand and we recorded our combat missions with hashmarks around the band. When you got 100 hashmarks you got to go home. Fully sixty percent of the guys that inked the first hash never logged the 100th.

My hat has 100 hashmarks on the band starting at the front and another ten that didn't count for NVN credit starting at the back. I was very fortunate to have had great leadership in my squadron and I unabashedly acknowledge my debt to them for my survival.

When I returned to Thailand in 1972, flying the F-4E, the jungle hats were no longer worn, but we were still flying against NVN so I took my hat with me and continued logging. I got another fifty marks in a second row above the first and ninety more non-counter combat missions marked from the rear of the hat which is now displayed at the museum. The total is 250 of the marks.

It is an honor for the hat to be on display at the museum and if you take a closer look you'll see that I get an even greater honor by having my meager effort acknowledged next to a photo of Robin Olds whose MiG-kill marked F-4D, Scat XXVII, is displayed nearby.

In the Dark of the Night

After a day of posturing and pontificating for the CSPAN cameras your non-representing elected representatives did the dirty deed last night. Significant in the vote is that no less than 38 Democrats jumped the shark onto the right side of the island. At least some of them have a sense of self-preservation.

But What About the Uninsured?

Notice that neat circumlocution? Remember how we talked about 40 million uninsured Americans a few days ago? Then when examined and we removed the illegals and those who could insure themselves but chose as free Americans to not do so the number went down to about 25 million. Now the the bleat is about 96% being covered. Which leaves 4% or 12 million uninsured! In order to achieve that grand goal we are going to screw up the best healthcare in the world and effectively damage the medical system of the nation along with the economy for the foreseeable future. Great job guys.

Want to know how much "stuff" is buried in the depths of the 2000 pages?

Help For Community Organizers AKA Acorn

There are some great requirements there couched in the language of diversity and opportunity and equality and that sort of thing:

• Sec. 399V (p. 1422) provides for grants to community "entities" with no required qualifications except having "documented community activity and experience with community healthcare workers" to "educate, guide, and provide experiential learning opportunities" aimed at drug abuse, poor nutrition, smoking and obesity. "Each community health worker program receiving funds under the grant will provide services in the cultural context most appropriate for the individual served by the program."

Don't you just love that "cultural context"? Or maybe you like the establishment of a preferential system of opportunity? Can that possibly be Constitutional?

• Secs. 2521 and 2533 (pp. 1379 and 1437) establishes racial and ethnic preferences in awarding grants for training nurses and creating secondary-school health science programs. For example, grants for nursing schools should "give preference to programs that provide for improving the diversity of new nurse graduates to reflect changes in the demographics of the patient population." And secondary-school grants should go to schools "graduating students from disadvantaged backgrounds including racial and ethnic minorities."

Preferences by race and ethnicity for receiving federal tax dollars? Graduating students from disadvantaged backgrounds? Improving diversity of nurse graduates? Hasn't the Supreme Court covered stuff like this in the Bakke decision of thirty years ago?

This only gets worse.

"Your Insurance Papers, pleeze..."

No, we're not talking about auto insurance, we're talking about mandatory health insurance coverage here:

Insure Yourself or Go to Jail With Spouse--Separate Cells, of Course

Did you read that carefully? Remember the promise of "95% of Americans won't see their taxes go up..."? Well, apparently that is no longer operative.

Some essentials for those who won't follow the link:

You will be required by government to purchase healthcare insurance. The average estimated cost for a non-group family policy will be $15,000 per year. So, you are low income and young with little healthcare risk, but you've got to spend $1250/month right off the top before shelter, food, clothing, transportation or existing taxes.

Wouldn't that be a tax?

But, if you choose not to you can be fined 2.5% of your adjusted gross income. If that is on top of existing income taxes isn't that a tax increase?

If you default, you can be fined up to $250,000 and imprisoned. Remember that British custom of indentured servitude? As I recall it was influential in fleeing England to the colonies and then the American Revolution.

Can Congress figure out that you can't get blood out of that turnip? If you can't buy the insurance and you can't pay the taxes, why would they think you had a quarter of a million for a fine? And, why should a spouse be imprisoned simply because you filed joint taxes?

Can you miss the unintended consequence of the financial burden of all that new prison space and staffing and prisoner support?

The US Congress is quite apparently totally insane and out of control.

Defining is Important

The "analysis" of Fort Hood is pressing full speed ahead, and as usual I am stunned by the naivete. There seems to be considerable reluctance to label the attack as "terrorist." The usual suspects are trotting out the usual phrases about "troubled individual" and "isolated loner" and "quiet neighbor" without really considering the basic issue. Is this a terrorist act?

I've been interested in terrorism for a long time. I've often thought that if I had ever pursued a PhD in political science that terrorism would be an interesting field of study. I did several papers and an independent research course in my Masters program in International Relations. I've taught a block on terrorism in Introduction to Political Science courses and I've lectured on terrorism at both Univ. of Colorado/Colorado Springs and Colorado College.

When I was in grad school, terrorism wasn't focussed on jihadists, but on socialist and liberation ideologies. The significant threats were folks like Baader-Meinhof, Red Army Faction, IRA, ETA and Shining Path. Surprisingly, a definition of terrorism developed to cover those groups is equally applicable to the current crop.

Here's what I consider to be criteria for defining a terrorist act:

1. Random--the site and victims are not usually associated with the "enemy" of the terrorist. The fact that anyone is a potential target is significant to the terror aspect of the campaign.
2. Violent--there must be considerable violence. Death and injury are required and great numbers of victims are essential. The violence must be quick and deadly.
3. Public--there must be rapid access of media to a very prominent and public location. Consider the attack timing of 9/11. The second strike was perfectly spaced to insure live coverage on all of the media. Publicity is necessary to be terrifying.
4. Ideologically driven--there needs to be an underlying ideology. This is a commonly shared belief system that is embraced by the terrorist whose goals are outside of the societal mainstream.
5. Political goal--it must be more than personal. It must be aimed at forcing a change in public policy such as foreign policy, civil rights, national identity, religious recognition, etc.
6. Outside of accepted political process--it is a non-standard method of seeking political recognition through intimidation, fear and an attempt to trigger a backlash of governmental repression in the name of security. Such repression is deemed as beneficial to build the numbers of adherents to the political ideology. The movement lacks sufficient numbers currently but with backlash, hopes to gain enough strength to become a revolution, insurgency or dominant power.

Run down the list. Can we call the actions of Major Nidal Malik Hasan a terrorist attack? I don't see how it can be labeled anything else. It wasn't discontent with the army. It wasn't pre-PTSD or secondary-PTSD, both of which are sniveling apologist terms for cowardice. It wasn't about prejudice in the work place.

It was random, violent, about Islam, seeking US withdrawal from the war on terror, and both public and outside of political process. It wasn't personal. It was terrorist business as usual.

Saturday Morning Music

I'm willing to bet that most readers who have been around for a while are familiar with Eric Burdon's version of "Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood." You might not have known it was a cover of a more emotional song done by Nina Simone:



Much can change with arrangments of a particular piece of music. Leon Russell showed it in a single stream-of-consciousness hippie-style conversation when he jammed "Straight Brother" at two distinctly different time signatures. Here's what happens when "Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood" gets updated by a master:



Now doesn't that make you want to go out and find some Honzu steel?

Thoughts in Passing

Some random thoughts in the aftermath of the Ft. Hood shootings:

Hasan is continually being identified as "Army major". That is technically correct but there is an important distinction. He served in the Medical Corps and not the line Army. It brings to the forefront a point I've made over the years about doctors in the military. They are given officer's rank upon joining but other than a brief orientation course they seldom look, act or think like military officers. They often are embarrassments to the uniform. The justification has been that giving them advanced rank gains them higher pay scales to enhance both recruiting and retention. That's crap. Hire them. Let them wear lab coats. Pay them what you need to. They aren't officers.

A psychiatrist treating wounded warriors at a major military medical center is in a sensitive position. They are supposedly trained to deal with the medical trauma of stress and combat. Psychiatrists are customarily members of professional groups that deal with their own issues to help them in their work. This guy either wasn't screened or the fog of political correctness allowed his "issues" to be ignored.

All of the significant terrorist actions around the world for the last ten to twenty years have been jihadists. They have been carried out by young Muslim men. Those men have either come from terrorist cells or they have been homegrown and cultured within our own society. They have all, however, been vocal in their intentions. We ignore it. Muslims in any position of responsibility should be under careful and even-handed scrutiny.

If I hear one more apologist tell me that Islam is a religion of peace. I'm going to gag. Islam is a religion of violence. Denying it is simply placing one's head deeply into the sand.

I've had a personal plan for facing a terrorist action. It is a result of the new paradigm about such matters that emerged so quickly on 9/11. The actions on United Flight 93 showed what is required. You can't cower under a desk and wait to die. Death is inevitable then. Take action. Charge the shooter. Disarm him. Do it as a group. Some will be injured but you will stop the attack. Failure to act will not make things better. This fool shot for 10 minutes and reloaded several times.

Hasan is Muslim. He is guilty (or as we say in America, accused) of a terrorist attack on a US military installation. Why don't we send him to Gitmo? He needs to be interrogated by some pros. Enhanced techniques seem to be in order.

Lethal injection is too good for some folks. Do we have any military manuals or T.O.s on flailing? This guy will get off too lightly if we simply conduct a trial, twenty years of appeals and then a plain execution. I suggest some people review the last fifteen minutes of Braveheart for ideas.

The President's staff must coach him that when a major terrorist attack takes place that your next public statement should not start with a "shoutout" to a supporter in the audience. Can this guy really be that stupid and insensitive?

End of random thoughts.

YGBSM!

Fort Hood shooting has left 12 dead and 31 wounded. But, this just in from ABC News gives me pause:

The suspected gunman was identified by ABC News as Major Malik Nadal Hasan.

We wouldn't want to be doing any racial profiling here would we?

This is going to have an interesting play-out over the next few days.

Worthless Advice

I'm a natural-born pontificator, so when Juvat poses this in response to my item on .380 shortages, I've got to respond:

So, Ras, what type pistol would you recommend? Not a big gun type, but have this uneasy feeling that bad times are coming. Would like something easy, reliable, reasonable assurance that if hit, the target will not continue coming, not outrageously expensive and has ammunition readily available.

Advice on self-defense handguns is worth what you pay for it. But, everyone is willing to offer it. So, here's my two cents.

First, Juvat says "not a big gun" which is in the eye of the beholder. It easily encompasses hunting handguns, macho-recoil calibers like .454 Casull and .50 S&W, and stuff with huge barrels or lots of whiz bangs. In other words something easily controllable, handy to keep around and potentially a carry gun. Let's go from there.

Choices abound. Juvat also phrases his question maybe inadvertently but it defines a first choice already. He says "pistol" rather than hand-gun. That means semi-auto and not revolver. For many folks that's a preferred option to begin with. In Texas, if you are going for concealed carry, you can carry either type if you qualify with a semi-auto, but only a revolver if you do your qualification shooting with a wheel-gun.

So, let's say semi-auto is preferred. Now, what about caliber? I rule out .380 currently because of lack of availability. If that shortage passes, then a .380 becomes a viable light-weight pocket pistol for concealed carry on a year-around basis. That's a factor in Texas where hot weather rules out jackets, sweaters, and sweat-shirts much of the year. Eliminate lesser calibers like .22, .25, .32 etc. Some will say they are fine, my preference is bigger.

The default favorites are 9mm, .40 S&W, and .45 ACP. These are commonly available rounds. They come in a variety of loadings including some very effective combat loads and inexpensive training ammo loadings as well. They are offered in a wide range of styles of pistol.

Next consider functionality of the pistol to be chosen. The options include single-action--meaning you fire the gun by pulling the trigger but it must be cocked by some other action. Either racking the slide for a first chambering or the cycling of the slide by the firing of another round. The hammer is cocked by the slide action. The trigger releases the hammer. These guns typically have two or more safeties to preclude inadvertent fire with a chambered round. A thumb safety which must be moved to fire and a grip safety which is activated by holding the weapon in a normal firing grip are basic. Training and familiarity with the safety operation is essential.

A double-action pistol performs two functions with a trigger pull. It cocks the hammer first and then releases it to fire. This requires a longer and heavier trigger pull which may effect your accuracy. These weapons usually have a "de-cocker" which lets you chamber a round and then let the hammer down safely for carry. After the first round is fired the hammer is cocked by the slide action so future shots are similar to a single-action. These guns are easy to operate and as long as you remember to de-cock after loading they employ no separate safety levers or controls.

A third option is the DAO or "double-action-only". These guns don't cock a hammer or striker when the slide is racked. They cock the hammer only with a trigger squeeze. All shots have the same weight and length of trigger pull and there are no safeties involved. You must pull a long trigger to get a shot off. These are very typical of the small pocket pistol type.

With an action chosen, you then introduce your individual stature. How big are your hands? A variety of weapons come with double or single stack magazines in widely varying capacity. Small hands mean a single stack would probably feel more secure. Larger hands mean a double stack could give you extra firepower. Small pocket pistols might not give you adequate grip surface for a large handed person. Access to controls like safeties, hammer, slide lock and magazine release should be checked. It has to feel good to you.

Sights are important. Night sights with tritium inserts are popular for home defense since you might need the weapon at night. An accessory rail on the underside of the barrel housing might appeal if you want to add a small compact flashlight or a laser dot. Those are personal choices.

If you intend to carry concealed, don't neglect a quality holster. There are plenty available but to get the best you will probably want to order from a maker rather than shop the shelves at Gander Mountain. Look for comfort and concealability. If you are going to make a decision to carry you will want to do it consistently and without inconvenience. A small gun with you and accessible is better than a bigger gun at home.

Go shopping. Try handling some. Talk to folks at the stores. Visit private gun shops rather than chains or big-box stores which generally don't have knowledgeable staff. I find insignificant difference between 9mm and .45 ACP in recoil. Others claim that one is acceptable and the other is excessive. I can't tell the difference.

If you can, find a pistol range and spend some time there test firing some loaners. They will be happy to help you.

My choices? Right now I've restricted myself to two calibers for simplicity--9mm and .45 ACP.

In .45, I prefer the 1911 style single-action, single-stack magazine with tritium night sights. I've got one full size (5" barrel) and one Commander-size (4" barrel.) They ride in a Kramer inside-the-waistband holster and are loaded with 230 grain Hydra-Shok tactical ammo. You can find 1911 clones from a wide range of manufacturers in 3, 4 and 5 inch barrel lengths from $500 to $2500. Expect to pay around $800-1000 for a nice gun.

In 9mm I've got a Sig P-228 and a Kel-Tec P9F pocket pistol. The Sig is a compact double stack, double action with 13 rounds. It has tritium night sights and a Kramer belt scabbard holster. It carries 115 grain Cor-Bon +P tactical ammo. The 228 is no longer in civilian production but a wide range of similar quality handguns is on dealer shelves. Costs range from $500 and up. Expect to get a very nice 9mm for $500-750 and maybe even less.

The Kel-Tec is a DAO pocket pistol that weighs a scant 12 ounces. Seven round of Cor-Bon and a couple of holsters: an IWB Cross-Breed for belt carry and a Galco pocket holster which simply slides into a trouser pocket to break up the outline and keep your nickels and dimes out of the action. Lots of pocket pistol choices around and most are in the $300-400 range. Having something with you is better defense than having nothing.

Your mileage may vary.

View of Futures Past

The secret of happiness is to speak of all things in postive terms. When life gives you lemons, make lemonade. When you lose elections, describe your moral victory and exaggerate your minor successes. And, when you are demonstrating how effective public health care is going to be, write in glowing terms on the front page of your major metro newspaper:

3600 Doses in Smooth First Day

That's right, folks! In a spectacular response to a global pandemic, the government has succeeded in delivering 3600 doses to a city of 2.5 million

tested the patience of thousands of adults and children who lined up outside for hours

Yes, indeed, it is so reminiscent of those photos we used to scornfully see of the glories of life in the Soviet Union as the babushkas stood patiently outside the butcher shop hoping for a chunk of protein before supplies were exhausted. Lines for everything and nothing available. Government managed healthcare can bring that to us.

"This is pretty efficient" said Michael Buxton, a 53-year old Dallas resident whose breathing problems brought him to seek a shot. "I waited a couple of hours, but it was a lot smoother than it should have been."

Establish incredibly low expectations and then the slightest crust of bread dispensed becomes a success! A life of waiting in all weather in lines for a limited resource which might not be available when you get your turn if you ever do.

The state health department is significantly changing the way it distributes swine flu vaccine giving more control of vaccine to local health departments...The bump-up means less vaccine to private providers...more opportunity for the general public to get the vaccine.

How egalitarian! Can you relate this to government control of healthcare assets and freeze-out of private provider alternatives? Can you see a burgeoning bureaucracy with federal doling out to state which doles out to local government entities all staffed with non-medical bureaucrats rationing out a limited, critical resource?

Jack Hartley, a 79-year-old Mesquite man walked away willingly from a nurse processing his shot papers when asked why he needed one..."I've had cancer on and off for the last ten years"

That's as clear as I need to understand the operation of the "Death Panels." Show me a 79 year old cancer survivor and I'll show you a squandering of a healthcare asset that could be used more effectively on a younger person. Time for you to die, old man!

There's more in those two front page, above-the-fold, features. The spin is that this was just a grand demo of your government dealing with an issue. The pathetic truth is that it clearly shows us our future and the descent into the morass of a Soviet style of control of the marketplace and rationing of our lives.

We aren't entering this without a backlog of history to review. Everywhere that a controlled, government-managed economy has been tried the result has been shortages, mis-management, and societal decline. Apparently we haven't been able to learn those lessons from that history.

Big Hollywood Rounds 'Em Up

Did you think that the Obama songs in the indoctrination system that is masking as public education were an abberation? Did you buy that they were mere isolated instances and not symptomatic of something more sinister? Sorry to disabuse you of that innocence. Take a look here and spend as little or as much time as you wish. View the videos or read the transcripts of the production numbers:

Eleven, Count 'Em, Eleven Obama Songs in School

The clock is ticking folks.

Non Sequitur

This month's issue of Guns & Ammo magazine features a cover story on the newest addition to the Taurus handgun line, the PT738, a 10 ounce DAO concealed carry pistol in .380 ACP. Last month we got the review of the new Sig-Sauer P338, a pocket pistol in .380 ACP reminiscent of the old Colt Mustang which was much like a 1911 Colt that had been shrunk in the washing machine. Two months before that, the buzz was of the newly announced Ruger LCP (Light Carry Pistol), a super-compact in .380 caliber.

In other words, the hottest thing in the gun market today is the renewal of the feeble (er, make that fabled) 9mm Kurtz in American livery as the .380 ACP which is a stubby version of a 9mm. It had long been scorned by those who were going to carry a defensive handgun as too puny to be an effective stopper if the real stuff hit the fan. Now it is fueling a frenzied buying public expecting a breakdown in law and order or a denial of our Second Amendment rights as imminent.

There's only one thing wrong with this in my free-market driven mind. I don't see an issue with meeting a demand with a modern and attractive firearm offering. That's fine, but a car won't run without gas. A computer won't compute without electricity. And, a firearm is a paperweight without ammunition.

I was gun shopping about a year ago for such a pocket pistol. The single driving issue that pushed me out of the .380 market was the lack of ammunition for the gun. I searched then in vain. I searched six months ago without reward. I searched again today for a source for .380 ACP ammunition.

I looked at:

1. Ammunition to Go
2. Ammoman
3. Widener's Shooting Supply
4. Natchez Shooter's Supplies
5. Sportsman's Guide
6. Cabela's

That's just to name a few. All locations are out-of-stock and back-ordered.

That tells me that if I'm walking down the street in a bad neighborhood and one of the crew tries to roll me with a .380 I can be virtually certain the gun is empty or at least he hasn't had enough ammo to practice with it!

Two Peoples Separated by Common Language

The British have long had a command of their brand of English that defies understanding by the common colonial. That got re-inforced for me last week when Christina Olds and I were battling through the short suspense for completing copy-edit review of the text of "Fighter Pilot", the Robin Olds memoir.

Robin left us a great chapter about his welcome to England during his exchange tour with the RAF. As a yank in a not-so-foreign land he got an ambiguous welcome from a squadron of very combat experienced warriors. He was challenged quickly and naturally he acquitted himself admirably. In the process of telling his story, he quoted the squadron commander as directing him to review the squadron's "bumpf"--an apparent slang reference to what we might today call a PIF or Pilot Information File. It was a library or collection of miscellaneous regulations, rules, diagrams, policies and trivia which governed or mis-governed daily operations.

The copy editor challenged us that "bumpf" should be spelled "bumf". Since neither term falls into the lexicon of common usage in the States, I did what I always counsel my students not to do. I went to Wikipedia.

There I found that "bumpf" (British spelling) or "bumf" (American usage) is RAF slang for "bum fodder" which roughly translates to toilet paper. It is applied to useless manuals and regulations which headquarters generates and the operators ignore. We defaulted to the original British spelling in the manuscript.

For those who want to brush up on their World War II RAF British banter, I offer this:



So, now you're prepared to "talk like a Fighter Pilot" if there should be such a day declared next year.

Howard Cosell Calling

He was the voice, the posture, the attitude and the toupee that we loved to hate on Monday Night Football. He would one-up the play-by-play of Frank Gifford and the experienced analysis of Don Meredith with soliloquies about his friendships with Cassius Clay, aka Mohammed Ali and other non-football entities. He would gratuitously drop comments that were tip-toeing the ragged edge of racist in their tones. He was classic New York and classic Damon Runyon pseudo-sports-writer. His autobiography was proudly titled "I Never Played the Game."

Howard on a black quarterback:



But, it was Howard Cosell who first bemoaned the death of dynasties in football. The pay cap, the draft, the creative divisions that called themselves north and central and regional but really crossed those lines with impunity, they all contributed to what Howard recognized as parity. All teams would henceforth be equal. If one became too good, the rules would be rewritten to penalize their power and redistribute it to less fortunate teams.

Damn, it almost looks like the current administration doesn't it? If one individual becomes too successful, we'll dismantle them. If one company can't win on Sunday, we'll support them. Is it politics imitating sport?

Are we seeing parity rearing its head in the NFL this year? I'm not sure. I can't tell what is going to happen "on any given Sunday" anymore except to be confident in predicting that Detroit will lose.

Last night the New Orleans Saints (nee "Ain'ts"), that team of bagged fans, continued their undefeated season. They aren't edging by, they are winning pretty! Their quarterback, Drew Brees, displays the sort of precision, accuracy and heady field generalship that causes flash-backs of five or ten years to Peyton Manning and Tom brady. It makes older fans recall Joe Montana and Roger Staubach. He's simply good--but he's playing for New Orleans! Who'da thunk it?

Some things are consistent. There is an element of stability as we see Indianapolis having yet another great season, also undefeated. The Patriots with Brady looking more healthy than the last couple of years look good as well.

There are also some disasters that we can rely upon. Detroit, of course. Oakland has been sad for a decade--one wonders what Al Davis is thinking or if he's even aware of the decline. There's Cleveland as well. One wonders if it is fair to have divisions in which a handful of teams get to play two games every year against those tackling dummies.

Halfway through the season, I'm confused. Despite my Texas residence, I've never been a Cowboy fan--I lost too much money on late-season collapses against Green Bay when all of my in-laws from my first marriage were from Sister Bay WI. I cried in 1966 during the final minutes of the Ice Bowl! I'm almost liking the Cowboys this year. With Terrell Owens gone, they've finally gotten down to playing football.

I don't like Denver and that's despite 20 years in Colorado. Sorry, but they are playing over their head. I'm disappointed in Chicago. I'd like to be a Bears booster having been born and raised there, but they simply don't have it and a hand-me-down quarterback like Jay Cutler.

It is going to be an interesting couple of months. Meanwhile let's hear it for the Longhorns and Colt McCoy! I've got my Heisman ballot ready.

Simply Chilling

The President's pastor and mentor of twenty years dons a more docile and seemingly rational persona as he addresses a group of like-minded individuals. Here we see him to be a contemplative and intellectual man, not prone to emotional rhetoric but dealing calmly with a professional speaking obligation.

Listen to what he says:



Yes, the praise flows so smoothly that you hardly notice it is for socialism and Marxism and that this country of ours is demeaned as "the Land of the Greed and the Home of the Slave..."

The Casualty List

Tomorrow's election will be pretty exciting for an off-year, odd-year, contest. Here in Texas we've got a ballot with five constitutional amendments on it. These are minor changes to the state constitution and predictions right now are for a lighter turn out than two years ago when just eight percent of registered voters cast a ballot. In Ft. Worth, the prediction is around three percent. That's democracy in action!

The real excitement comes in those three East Coast tests of first electorate reaction to the Obama policies and the heavy-handed legislative legerdemain of the Democratic congress. We've got two governor races in play and a vacancy election in upstate New York for a congressional seat.

Right now the Virginia race is pretty much a sure thing for McDonnell, the Republican. His opponent, Creigh Deeds, got the ultimate bitch-slap today when the last minute campaign boost came in the form of a visit by VP Biden. The Messiah, apparently, is done with him. Virginia is arguably the quintessential "purple" state, but they've leaned blue rather than red the last couple of years. Loser here is the Obama team.

New Jersey is the poster-child for corrupt, mismanaged social welfare dedicated government. The incumbent governor carries so much baggage he makes Rod Blagojevich look attractive. There is a virtual toss-up there, although that has been shifting as the independent candidate's voter base has declined and the Republican, Chris Christie has gained a slight margin. Loser here is anyone with a job and hoping to make a living in a corrupt state.

The grand insight is the least powerful position at risk in the three contests. The glimpse into the future of the Republican, nee Conservative Party afforded by the soap opera in NY-23 is both optimistic and a disaster. The party chosen candidate was so liberal that even the New York voters noticed. The district which has been represented by a Republican for decades wasn't going to go quietly for a candidate simply because there was an "R" by her name. She lost momentum and a staunch conservative emerged without a party imprimatur.

Along the way, former Speaker Newt Gingrich cast his not insignificant endorsement her way in a classic appeal to "party unity"--the not totally incorrect argument that any Republican, even a liberal one, is a better choice than a Democrat. National Chairman, Michael Steele, voiced similar justification for supporting her.

Problems arose when the independent began to get endorsements from less regimented conservatives like Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachman and Tim Pawlenty.

The real clinker in the process came when the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the race. That should have signaled a gracious side-step to let the preferred conservative take the field. It didn't. Following a midnight call from the Don of Division Street, AKA "The Messiah", Dede endorsed the Democrat! Which says a lot for her Republican bona fides.

The loser here, by a significant margin, is Newt Gingrich. Any pretension he ever had of being a transcendent conservative who was above the petty partisan fray and averse to the "go-along to get-along" methodology of Washington is now irretrievably lost. We'll hear little more from Newt for a while now and he shouldn't be a significant player in either 2010 or 2012 politics. Too bad, he coulda been a contender...

How We Got Here

If you've been wondering how we got to the state of government we now find ourselves in, take a look at this stunning item:

Advice From a Nine-Year-Old

That's right! We are so bloody ignorant about real world events we find ourselves listening to campaign phone calls from a third-grader!

I grew up in Chicago. My father worked for the Chicago Sun-Times (Field Newspapers) and my neighborhood was about ten blocks north of Irving Park where this precocious little tot is found.

Now, he may be very intelligent. He may be able to read a tele-marketing script quite well. He may be quite coachable and certainly he is cute enough to attract a film-maker's eye.

But, ask him about redistribution of wealth through a confiscatory tax policy. Discuss the nuances of Middle Eastern policy. Query him for what he expects the outcome would be with a nuclear capable Iran and N. Korea. Check his opinion on Keynesian economics and whether or not a stimulus will create jobs. See if he understands how healthcare is provided and why a doctor might work or an investor might buy into a hospital.

When we find ourselves listening to third-graders with regard to who should lead the most powerful nation in the world during perilous times, we are clearly no longer capable of rational self-government.